Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x375f…b494 sports 90 markets active 16h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$250 (+11%) realized +$250 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 44L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$582
14 days+$647
30 days+$635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$550
other 19% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +103.2% +83.8% 73% 73% +69.0%
≤30d 51 +23.9% +12.1% 51% 51% +23.3%
≤90d 82 +9.2% -1.2% 46% 46% +15.0%
all 82 +9.2% -1.2% 46% 46% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 46% +15.0%
10% -10.7% 46% +4.0%
15% -19.3% 46% -6.1%
20% -27.2% 46% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$21 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 44
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 90
History coverage87d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $53 +$58 +110%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $78 +$85 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $121 −$119 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Eng Jun 18 $52 +$155 +297%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 +$13 +101%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$141 +94%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 +$18 +114%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arg Jun 16 $6 +$16 +288%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 +$91 +250%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $18 +$64 +365%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $78 +$67 +86%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $18 +$25 +134%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $125 −$123 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $112 +$105 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $37 +$67 +180%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $55 +$39 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $26 −$25 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $23 −$1 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $60 +$60 +99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $40 −$40 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 06 $11 −$1 -5%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 05 $21 −$21 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $13 −$12 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $32 −$32 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 03 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 03 $12 +$11 +90%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $42 +$59 +142%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $37 −$36 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $23 +$20 +90%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 30 $24 +$28 +118%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $25 +$25 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $16 +$15 +96%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $30 +$25 +84%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $33 −$32 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $31 −$31 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 25 $22 −$21 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $33 +$30 +90%
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 23 $22 −$22 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 23 $25 +$32 +126%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 23 $41 −$41 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 47¢ $53 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $78 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $43 43h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes $7 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $78 45h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Colombia leadin BUY $11 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $13 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Eng BUY 14¢ $28 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Eng SELL 10¢ $17 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Eng BUY 14¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR BUY $3 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR BUY $3 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $7 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2 BUY $7 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arg SELL 39¢ $22 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $34 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arg BUY 10¢ $6 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $117 3d
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 36¢ $16 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 202 BUY $3 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $18 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $78 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: S BUY 22¢ $23 6d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 42¢ $18 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records