Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3762…ee20 crypto 1358 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-3%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%740W / 618L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$11
14 days+$10
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 331 +0.2% -9.4% 88% 70% -8.9%
≤30d 661 -0.5% -9.9% 84% 71% -10.2%
≤90d 1358 -8.9% -17.6% 54% 48% -12.2%
all 1358 -8.9% -17.6% 54% 48% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 48% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 21% -20.6%
15% -32.7% 15% -28.3%
20% -39.3% 13% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses740 / 618
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1358 / 1358
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1358 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records