Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
37 0x3763…345f sports 1268 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,689 (+1%) realized +$10,716 · open −$2,027
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%579W / 683L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$516per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$7,153est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 172d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,667
other 6% +$2,038
crypto 0% −$607
world 0% −$700
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +16.6% +5.5% 54% 54% +8.6%
≤30d 67 -18.1% -25.9% 40% 40% -10.7%
≤90d 1015 -29.5% -36.2% 34% 34% -16.3%
all 1262 -6.8% -15.6% 46% 45% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 45% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 44% -18.0%
15% -31.1% 39% -25.9%
20% -37.8% 34% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$639) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$452 vs −$382 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$3,782
Realized+$10,716
Unrealized−$2,027
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses579 / 683
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$7,153
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1262 / 1268
History coverage172d
Avg bet$516
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $3,613 $3,566 −$47 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Acend 40¢ 22¢ $400 $213 −$187 (-47%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Virtus.pro 20¢ 0¢ $485 $1 −$484 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Walczaki 50¢ 0¢ $1,000 $1 −$999 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Acend 47¢ 0¢ $311 $0 −$311 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 381 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $292 +$1,412 +483%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $990 +$256 +26%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 25 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $1,613 +$605 +38%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Jun 25 $38 −$38 -98%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 25 $2,525 +$1,887 +75%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $256 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $760 +$835 +110%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $1,912 +$1,548 +81%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $764 +$1,147 +150%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $975 −$955 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $765 −$750 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $2,436 −$2,408 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $1,118 +$1,318 +118%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $357 −$350 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $460 +$1,137 +247%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 23 $105 −$101 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $750 −$740 -99%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $1,378 +$1,006 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1,894 +$587 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,534 +$822 +23%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $3,331 +$2,094 +63%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $1,318 −$1,300 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $3,106 +$1,548 +50%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $382 +$740 +194%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,224 −$1,200 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $2,494 +$1,976 +79%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,464 −$1,442 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,458 −$1,440 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,520 −$1,500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,435 −$1,405 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $2,940 +$5,291 +180%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,020 +$959 +94%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $901 −$880 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $499 −$487 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,031 +$571 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,502 −$1,475 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,304 −$1,280 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,039 −$1,020 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,903 +$2,654 +139%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $3,339 −$3,288 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,843 +$1,503 +82%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $154 −$150 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,352 −$1,330 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,494 +$847 +34%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $995 −$985 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 20¢ $497 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $3,682 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $1,704 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 50¢ $1,015 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 46¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 40¢ $407 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 47¢ $153 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL 9INE 42¢ $1,246 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 47¢ $77 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 47¢ $75 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean BUY Katie Volynets 58¢ $1,013 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 17¢ $292 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 33¢ $630 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 33¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 33¢ $214 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 33¢ $66 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 33¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 33¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 33¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 33¢ $67 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $2,219 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 72¢ $1,613 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $203 4h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 23¢ $38 4h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $4,412 4h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 56¢ $2,525 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $256 19h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 80¢ $733 19h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 80¢ $18 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,781.85 · official $3,781.85 (match) · 3007 history records