Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3764…9d7e other 364 markets active 1h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$165 (-1%) realized −$157 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate81%294W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$413
world 24% −$472
politics 17% +$124
tech 6% −$76
sports 5% −$189
finance 3% +$13
culture 3% +$18
crypto 2% −$25
economics 1% +$17
weather 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 362 -2.0% -11.3% 81% 7% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 7% -10.1%
10% -19.8% 4% -18.7%
15% -27.6% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.7% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$157
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses294 / 68
Open positions2
Markets (closed)362 / 364
History coverage372d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $101 −$8 -8%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $101 $0 -0%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Mar 16 $29 +$3 +10%
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 16 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 16 $29 +$17 +59%
Will Nepali Communist Party win the third-most seats in the Nepal Hous Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the third-most seats in the Ne Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? Mar 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 07 $99 +$1 +1%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 07 $201 +$4 +2%
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%? Mar 07 $33 +$17 +51%
Will MrBeast say "Donated" or "Raised" during his next YouTube video? Mar 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike Iraq in March? Mar 07 $99 +$2 +2%
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Mar 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Will "Sam" or "Altman" be said during the next episode of the All-In P Mar 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Where are you" during Inter Miami events on Thursday? Mar 06 $50 $0 +1%
Will Hegseth or Cooper say "America" 15+ times during press conference Mar 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on March 5? Mar 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will Brazil’s unemployment rate for November–January 2026 be less than Mar 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will Brazil’s unemployment rate for November–January 2026 be 5.0%? Mar 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will Brazil’s unemployment rate for November–January 2026 be 4.9%? Mar 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will Brazil’s unemployment rate for November–January 2026 be 5.1%? Mar 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Brazil’s unemployment rate for November–January 2026 be 5.2%? Mar 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Brazil’s unemployment rate for November–January 2026 be 5.3%? Mar 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Leavitt say "Border" during the next White House Press Briefing? Mar 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Leavitt say "State of the Union" during the next White House Pres Mar 05 $32 +$9 +29%
Will Leavitt say "Stock Market" during the next White House Press Brie Mar 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Henry Cuellar be the Democratic nominee for TX-28? Mar 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Jessica Steinmann be the Republican Nominee for TX-08? Mar 04 $45 $0 +1%
Will "Conspiracy" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of Mar 04 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 04 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Mark Teixeira be the Republican nominee for TX-21? Mar 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Gold" or "Silver" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience epis Mar 04 $101 +$1 +1%
Will "Iran" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the w Mar 04 $152 −$118 -78%
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $195 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Wind" or "Solar" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 03 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility? Mar 01 $199 +$7 +4%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $103 +$1 +1%
Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Iranian officials visit the White House by February 28? Mar 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump talk to Kevin Hassett in February? Mar 01 $199 +$4 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Mar 01 $201 +$3 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $200 +$6 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $288 −$59 -20%
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14? Mar 01 $148 +$2 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $358 −$59 -16%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $93 92d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $101 92d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 95¢ $101 92d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 95¢ $101 92d
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $32 92d
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? SELL Yes 90¢ $99 92d
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? BUY Yes 92¢ $101 92d
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $9 100d
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $10 100d
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $9 100d
Will Nepali Communist Party win the third-most seats in the Nepal Hous BUY Yes $2 100d
Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the third-most seats in the Ne BUY No $2 100d
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 101d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 101d
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 101d
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%? SELL No 100¢ $49 101d
Will MrBeast say "Donated" or "Raised" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 99¢ $2 101d
Will MrBeast say "Donated" or "Raised" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 99¢ $47 101d
Will MrBeast say "Donated" or "Raised" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 99¢ $50 101d
Will Iran strike Iraq in March? BUY Yes 99¢ $49 101d
Will Iran strike Iraq in March? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 101d
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 102d
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 102d
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY No 99¢ $50 102d
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY No 99¢ $50 102d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? BUY No 63¢ $9 102d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? BUY No 63¢ $10 102d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? BUY No 63¢ $10 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.36 · official $142.36 (match) · 1246 history records