Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:31:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3765…5fd9 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 74L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 94% −$16
other 3% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 77 -0.4% -9.9% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage629d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in January? Feb 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will RB Leipzig win the Bundesliga? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fenerbahce win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 1 Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
No Trump coin reaches $1b? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
OpenSea blocks US users in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Davante Adams be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Raj Rao announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will CeeDee Lamb be the top Fantasy Wide Reciever? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will 'Fortnight' win Song of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Dec 09 $0 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Dak Prescott win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 14h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 18d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 20d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 29d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 30d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $53 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $53 36d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 39d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 39d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 42d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 43d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 63d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 64d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 69d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 69d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 70d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 71d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 80d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 81d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 89d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 90d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 95d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 96d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 97d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records