Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3768…3984 other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$631 (+0%) realized +$630 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%24W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,403per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$18
14 days−$37
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$310
politics 36% −$102
sports 19% +$1,020
culture 3% −$7
economics 2% −$3
world 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$4
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -1.6% -11.0% 11% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 89 -0.4% -9.9% 7% 3% -9.0%
all 150 -1.7% -11.0% 16% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 11% -9.3%
10% -19.6% 11% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 11% -25.9%
20% -34.5% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,699) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$12 · ×7.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized+$630
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses24 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,403
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $422 $423 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $3,196 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $6,484 −$7 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $983 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $297 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,500 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1,443 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $3,195 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $2,092 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,894 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,273 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,893 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,653 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,982 −$5 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,665 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,002 −$6 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $93 +$63 +67%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,818 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $1,678 −$2 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $77 +$61 +79%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $5,293 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $597 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $866 +$1 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,740 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $691 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $994 −$2 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,666 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 21 $963 +$1,226 +127%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $6,392 −$7 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $2,060 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,067 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $1,018 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $2,251 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $1,135 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $768 1h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $769 3h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $762 21h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $763 22h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $709 23h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $710 25h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $982 45h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $983 46h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $297 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $297 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,470 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,472 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,442 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,443 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,577 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,579 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,376 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,378 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,267 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,269 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,485 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,487 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,272 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,273 10d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $422 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,601 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,603 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,598 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,600 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,525 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.75 · official $422.75 (match) · 510 history records