Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x376a…d270 weather 1091 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,701 (+1%) realized +$7,689 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate99%1066W / 15L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$585per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,011now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$337
14 days+$422
30 days+$2,000
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$7,195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +5.8% -4.2% 100% 9% -8.1%
≤30d 361 +2.1% -7.6% 99% 4% -8.2%
≤90d 1081 +4.1% -5.8% 99% 5% -8.5%
all 1081 +4.1% -5.8% 99% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 5% -8.5%
10% -14.8% 3% -17.3%
15% ← realistic here -23.0% 2% -25.3%
20% -30.6% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$742) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$66 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.29 per $1 lost it wins $8.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$3,011
Realized+$7,689
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1066 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1081 / 1091
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$585
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1081 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $773 $774 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $657 $665 +$8 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $548 $548 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $262 $262 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $211 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $190 $190 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $106 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 20? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 21 $227 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20? Jun 21 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $2,899 +$29 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 20? Jun 21 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 20 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 20 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 20 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? Jun 20 $111 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $467 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $384 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $65 +$17 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $64 +$80 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $333 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? Jun 18 $573 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $696 +$14 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 17 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,220 +$17 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $409 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $728 +$17 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $219 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $694 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $562 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $971 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $504 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 15 $997 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1,012 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $1,146 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $499 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June Jun 15 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $203 +$24 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $8 53m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $32 53m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $6 53m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $9 53m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $60 53m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $8 53m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 53m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $109 54m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $127 54m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $83 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $93 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $548 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $190 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,011.24 · official $3,011.24 (match) · 3500 history records