Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x376a…d470 world 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1
other 24% +$2
politics 14% +$1
crypto 6% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.1% -7.7% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 18 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 18 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 0% -9.4%
all 55 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -9.3%
10% -19.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage348d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $24 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $89 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $37 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $28 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $28 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $44 −$3 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $63 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $46 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Dec 02 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Zelensky events on August Aug 20 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 17 $1 $0 +19%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 15 $2 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15? Aug 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11? Aug 10 $23 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 10 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $33 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $30 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $25 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $16 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $32 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $32 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $28 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $28 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records