Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
37 0x376e…2e4c sports 20 markets active 2d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,640 (-48%) realized −$1,640 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days−$1,652
14 days−$1,652
30 days−$1,652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$913
sports 45% −$542
crypto 6% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -24.9% -32.1% 37% 37% -53.5%
≤30d 20 -23.3% -30.6% 40% 35% -53.4%
≤90d 20 -23.3% -30.6% 40% 35% -53.4%
all 20 -23.3% -30.6% 40% 35% -53.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 35% -53.4%
10% -37.2% 35% -57.9%
15% -43.3% 35% -62.0%
20% -48.9% 25% -65.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$208 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,640
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage25d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $65 +$163 +250%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 +$12 +47%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $62 +$31 +50%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $138 −$136 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $182 +$118 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 −$198 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $104 −$103 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $351 −$346 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $352 −$351 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $258 +$189 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $187 +$116 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $121 +$219 +180%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $261 −$258 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $217 −$212 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $192 −$188 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $406 −$400 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 68¢ $22 40h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 64¢ $3 40h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 28¢ $65 40h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL Iraq 100¢ $93 41h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $62 45h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $138 45h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $182 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $122 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $201 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 69¢ $104 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 47¢ $52 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $249 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $300 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $49 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $258 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $121 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $187 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $18 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $243 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $143 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $217 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $192 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $406 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records