Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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37 0x376f…ad0e crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$690per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$5
14 days−$17
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-68.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -59.9% -63.7% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -55.5% -59.7% 44% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -65.2% -68.5% 35% 0% -9.7%
all 23 -65.2% -68.5% 35% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -71.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -74.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -76.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,056) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -82% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage43d
Avg bet$690
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? Jun 26 $2,044 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,039 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? Jun 10 $2,076 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,072 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $2,068 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,065 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7? Jun 08 $2,061 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,056 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 20? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 16? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 14? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,044 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,039 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 12d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $2,076 16d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,072 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $2,068 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $2,065 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $2,061 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,056 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 29d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 31d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? BUY No 0¢ $4 33d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 20? BUY No 0¢ $4 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.21 · official $5.21 (match) · 35 history records