Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x3770…88a6 sports 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,382 (-12%) realized −$1,388 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%36W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$74
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,449
other 7% +$12
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +14.4% +3.5% 72% 72% -4.5%
≤30d 18 +14.4% +3.5% 72% 72% -4.5%
≤90d 18 +14.4% +3.5% 72% 72% -4.5%
all 82 -0.9% -10.4% 44% 44% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 44% -21.3%
10% -18.9% 44% -28.9%
15% -26.8% 41% -35.7%
20% -34.0% 35% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$125 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$1,388
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 46
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage334d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 57¢ $133 $139 +$6 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $155 −$153 -99%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $107 +$53 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $117 +$43 +37%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $104 +$36 +35%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $74 +$26 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $55 +$45 +83%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $73 +$27 +38%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $42 −$41 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $36 +$29 +79%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $53 +$47 +88%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $90 +$60 +67%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $64 −$64 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $46 +$35 +75%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $51 +$22 +43%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $62 +$35 +57%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Mar 05 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Acend (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Playoff Feb 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs SPARTA - Map 1 Winner Feb 19 $24 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Q Feb 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $103 +$97 +94%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Denmark Feb 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Q Feb 12 $550 −$210 -38%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $193 +$217 +113%
Men's Group B - Sweden vs. Italy Feb 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $259 −$259 -100%
76ers vs. Trail Blazers Feb 10 $260 +$77 +30%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 10 $196 −$196 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5 Feb 10 $143 −$143 -100%
Jazz vs. Heat Feb 10 $105 +$245 +233%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 09 $75 +$72 +96%
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5) Feb 09 $75 +$81 +108%
Pacers vs. Raptors Feb 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Hornets vs. Hawks Feb 08 $50 +$43 +85%
Spread: Hornets (-1.5) Feb 08 $50 +$47 +93%
Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5 Feb 08 $92 +$67 +72%
Jazz vs. Magic Feb 07 $49 −$3 -7%
Spread: Magic (-7.5) Feb 07 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-05? Jan 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jan 05 $70 −$20 -28%
Counter-Strike: OG vs 500 (BO3) Dec 12 $109 −$109 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Imperial (BO1) Nov 29 $97 −$97 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs B8 (BO1) Nov 29 $75 −$75 -100%
Bears vs. Eagles Nov 29 $106 +$166 +156%
Tigers vs. Royals Aug 30 $500 −$500 -100%
Pirates vs. Red Sox Aug 30 $249 +$384 +154%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $134 16m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 73¢ $52 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 73¢ $103 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $160 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $102 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $107 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $117 11h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $14 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $6 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $84 13h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 73¢ $74 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 30h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $42 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Colombia 72¢ $73 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $18 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $28 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $7 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $61 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $36 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $64 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $60 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 100¢ $73 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $46 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 69¢ $51 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $98 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 63¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.64 · official $138.64 (match) · 205 history records