Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3771…54b3 other 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,580 (+161%) realized +$3,586 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%38W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 230d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$1
crypto 21% −$258
politics 17% −$49
sports 16% +$72
world 3% +$2
weather 2% −$29
finance 1% −$20
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +53.4% +38.8% 20% 20% -9.8%
≤30d 35 +19.7% +8.3% 11% 11% -40.9%
≤90d 47 +2.4% -7.3% 11% 11% -46.2%
all 215 -15.4% -23.5% 18% 17% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 17% -25.5%
10% -30.8% 16% -32.6%
15% -37.5% 16% -39.1%
20% -43.6% 16% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$8 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$3,586
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses38 / 177
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)215 / 221
History coverage230d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Down 4¢ 3¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$50 +982%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 25? May 26 $4 +$16 +456%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 25 $33 −$31 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 25 $100 −$96 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 2 May 25 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$97 +3233%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $362 −$21 -6%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $8 +$42 +525%
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Mar 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 11 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $40 −$12 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 4¢ $13 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $20 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 17h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 17h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 19h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 27h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 28h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 35h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 35h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 35h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 9¢ $5 35h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 18d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 1¢ $1 20d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 1¢ $1 20d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 1¢ $2 20d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 1¢ $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 1¢ $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.12 · official $74.12 (match) · 677 history records