Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3776…b9ac crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$195 (-8%) realized −$169 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day95.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$318
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -26.5% -33.5% 54% 42% -21.5%
≤30d 50 -26.5% -33.5% 54% 42% -21.5%
≤90d 50 -26.5% -33.5% 54% 42% -21.5%
all 50 -26.5% -33.5% 54% 42% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.5% 42% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -39.9% 26% -29.0%
15% -45.7% 18% -35.9%
20% -51.0% 14% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$28 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$169
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day95.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 47¢ 34¢ $90 $64 −$26 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $56 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $116 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $133 +$25 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $124 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $102 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $92 +$37 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $129 +$22 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$10 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $71 +$16 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$19 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $93 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $30 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $95 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $90 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $34 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $36 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $105 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $93 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $28 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $101 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $93 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $96 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.15 · official $64.15 (match) · 114 history records