Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:50:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3777…eb6e crypto 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$50 (-3%) realized −$182 · open +$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%76W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$49
14 days+$45
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$44
sports 42% +$173
other 14% −$85
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.7% -35.5% 33% 33% +16.0%
≤30d 50 -25.6% -32.6% 44% 26% -18.6%
≤90d 148 -13.2% -21.4% 46% 32% -15.0%
all 164 -13.5% -21.7% 46% 34% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 34% -15.7%
10% -29.2% 23% -23.8%
15% -36.1% 18% -31.1%
20% -42.3% 15% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$132
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses76 / 88
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)164 / 166
History coverage362d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $109 $205 +$96 (+89%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 100¢ $106 $141 +$35 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $105 +$120 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 01 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 30 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 30 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 30 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 30 $3 $0 -8%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 30 $11 −$7 -68%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 30 $6 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 30 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 30 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 30 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 30 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 30 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 30 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 30 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 30 $18 −$8 -44%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 28 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $53 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 24 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 24 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 24 $7 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $107 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $50 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $59 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 41¢ $70 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $105 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.15 · official $346.15 (match) · 633 history records