Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3779…9ee2 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-3%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$10
sports 14% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.5% -23.6% 53% 53% -14.5%
≤30d 15 -15.5% -23.6% 53% 53% -14.5%
≤90d 28 -8.3% -17.0% 46% 46% -14.8%
all 28 -8.3% -17.0% 46% 46% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 46% -14.8%
10% -25.0% 39% -23.0%
15% -32.2% 32% -30.4%
20% -38.9% 14% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage76d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$10 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12 +$6 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -85%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 +$4 +33%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $2 +$1 +35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -78%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $1 +$1 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $3 +$1 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $18 −$1 -8%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $1 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $27 −$3 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 24h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 25h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 25h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $11 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 43h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $2 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 66d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 66d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 67d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 67d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 67d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 68d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records