Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x377b…92e1 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$14
politics 28% −$10
sports 10% −$10
crypto 5% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 121 +1.0% -8.6% 10% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage127d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $175 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $305 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $207 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $352 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $209 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $210 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $251 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $264 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 19 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $363 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $267 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $218 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $390 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $273 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $274 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $203 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $366 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $167 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $415 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $467 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 14h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $25 31h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $25 40h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 43h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 8d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 13d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 13d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 19d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 21d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 21d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 22d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $207 24d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 24d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $191 24d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $191 25d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 25d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 26d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $233 26d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $233 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 371 history records