Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x377c…e438 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% $0
finance 6% $0
other 5% −$2
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% +$1
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.1% 23% 8% -10.0%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.1% 23% 8% -10.0%
all 35 -1.6% -11.0% 37% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -10.0%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage490d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $92 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $43 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $37 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $1 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $2 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $49 −$3 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Dec 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -79%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will Serhou Guirassy be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 23 $4 $0 -4%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 23 $6 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Apr 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 21 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 10? Apr 13 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $9 $0 -1%
San José State vs. Utah State Mar 04 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $46 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $42 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $5 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $37 10h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $11 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $46 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $47 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $47 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $20 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $20 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $42 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $4 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $6 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $42 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $36 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.14 · official $49.14 (match) · 109 history records