Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:12:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
37 0x377d…b135 other 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$30 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%90W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$94
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$158
sports 24% −$185
world 2% +$120
crypto 1% −$34
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.4% -4.7% 56% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 22 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 45% -0.7%
≤90d 54 -1.5% -10.9% 52% 48% -10.7%
all 187 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 46% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 46% -8.5%
10% -27.3% 45% -17.2%
15% -34.3% 41% -25.2%
20% -40.8% 33% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$19 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses90 / 97
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)187 / 193
History coverage218d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 38¢ 30¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 51¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $53 +$1 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $54 +$66 +124%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$49 +97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$96 -95%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $87 +$26 +30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$15 +68%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $16 −$3 -17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $17 −$16 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 +$27 +51%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $19 +$19 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 18 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $63 −$60 -95%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $33 +$36 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $33 −$1 -5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $13 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $29 +$11 +40%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? May 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey? May 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 14 $35 +$25 +70%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $80 +$30 +38%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? Apr 28 $70 +$11 +16%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 28 $10 +$4 +38%
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 21 $19 +$11 +58%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $30 +$39 +128%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $39 +$23 +59%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $25 +$17 +67%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $9 +$11 +123%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $9 +$10 +114%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $30 +$39 +128%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $14 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 34m
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 40¢ $5 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 61¢ $54 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $35 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 58¢ $53 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $54 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 37h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $13 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $114 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $87 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 48¢ $14 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $23 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $16 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $17 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $53 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $38 5d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will United Stat BUY 4¢ $21 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 34¢ $25 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $19 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $21 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $22 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $63 9d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.81 · official $34.81 · 481 history records