Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x377d…768a other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%11W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$4
politics 36% −$4
sports 11% −$3
culture 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
world 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.1% -31.4% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 11 -12.6% -21.0% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 11 -12.6% -21.0% 9% 0% -10.0%
all 85 -6.3% -15.2% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses11 / 74
Open positions4
Markets (closed)85 / 89
History coverage377d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $45 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1 $0 -18%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $104 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 29 $51 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 07 $1 $0 -50%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Jan 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 25 $2 $0 -12%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $109 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $2 $0 -14%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 11 $160 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 11 $1 $0 -50%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 05 $53 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $104 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 08 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $46 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $46 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 11d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 16d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.52 · official $46.52 (match) · 361 history records