Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x3783…6e0d crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%37W / 9L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$1
other 18% $0
politics 11% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 46 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.93 per $1 lost it wins $6.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses37 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage500d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $18 in March? Apr 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 02 $51 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $19 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Aug 02 $43 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 10 $13 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $13 $0 +2%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $19 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Feb 20 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 30d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 100¢ $39 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 92d
Will Chainlink reach $18 in March? BUY No 100¢ $56 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 123d
Will Solana reach $170 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $20 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $37 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $26 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $34 182d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $51 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $19 242d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $35 242d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $12 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $39 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? BUY No 100¢ $34 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? BUY No 100¢ $43 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $19 363d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 366d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 393d
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 395d
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? BUY No 100¢ $10 424d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? BUY No 100¢ $9 424d
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 425d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.84 · official $54.84 (match) · 98 history records