Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
37 0x3783…171d sports 592 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,603 (+1%) realized +$1,953 · open −$350
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%348W / 236L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Fees−$1,533est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,708
7 days+$1,033
14 days+$3,372
30 days+$586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$670
crypto 17% −$51
other 1% +$368
finance 0% −$193
world 0% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +16.0% +4.9% 56% 52% -5.0%
≤30d 496 +7.2% -3.0% 59% 53% -9.2%
≤90d 584 +7.7% -2.5% 60% 54% -9.0%
all 584 +7.7% -2.5% 60% 54% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 54% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 45% -17.7%
15% -20.4% 39% -25.7%
20% -28.2% 32% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$210 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$555
Realized+$1,953
Unrealized−$350
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses348 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,533
Open positions7
Markets (closed)584 / 592
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$310
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $215 $198 −$17 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Virtus.pro 86¢ 100¢ $120 $139 +$19 (+16%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 37¢ 18¢ $222 $111 −$111 (-50%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 42¢ 42¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 31¢ 8¢ $62 $15 −$47 (-76%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 49¢ 1¢ $196 $3 −$193 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $275 +$233 +85%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $129 −$120 -92%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $158 +$142 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $17 −$15 -86%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $78 −$71 -92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 20 $460 −$373 -81%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 20 $121 −$121 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 20 $247 −$247 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 20 $151 −$151 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 20 $227 −$227 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 20 $238 −$230 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 20 $249 −$249 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $255 +$445 +174%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,882 −$382 -20%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $183 +$217 +119%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $37 +$13 +35%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $62 +$38 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $157 +$143 +91%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $44 +$156 +354%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $756 +$111 +15%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $123 −$113 -92%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $96 +$204 +212%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $78 +$22 +28%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $94 +$106 +113%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$90 +900%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $450 +$150 +33%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $136 +$264 +194%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $219 +$48 +22%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 +$79 +65%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $103 +$197 +191%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $168 +$32 +19%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $103 +$108 +105%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $118 −$113 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $84 13m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 24¢ $8 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 24¢ $16 23m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 35¢ $35 47m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 38¢ $38 59m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 90¢ $8 59m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 90¢ $27 59m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 85¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 85¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL Virtus.pro 52¢ $127 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL Virtus.pro 52¢ $81 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 48¢ $96 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 55¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 55¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 55¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL 1WIN 44¢ $130 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 50¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 50¢ $36 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 50¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 50¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 66¢ $67 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 66¢ $65 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S SELL INOX Division 4¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 41¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 41¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 20¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.58 · official $554.58 (match) · 3482 history records