Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
37 0x378a…2e5b crypto 38 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+6%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate66%25W / 13L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$6
other 7% −$1
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.0% -39.3% 33% 33% -42.7%
≤30d 38 +9.5% -0.9% 66% 63% -6.6%
≤90d 38 +9.5% -0.9% 66% 63% -6.6%
all 38 +9.5% -0.9% 66% 63% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 63% -6.6%
10% -10.4% 61% -15.6%
15% -19.1% 47% -23.7%
20% -27.0% 34% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses25 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 20 $4 $0 -11%
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 19 $1 −$1 -64%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? Jun 19 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 6d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 6d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 7d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 7d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 7d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide SELL No 7¢ $0 7d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 7d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 7d
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide BUY No 18¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records