Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:46:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x378c…0f2d sports 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,654 (-10%) realized −$3,654 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate76%78W / 25L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days+$479
14 days+$735
30 days+$862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$3,435
other 3% −$255
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -9.6% -18.3% 81% 7% -5.5%
≤30d 60 -3.8% -13.0% 83% 5% -5.9%
≤90d 103 -6.7% -15.6% 76% 7% -18.6%
all 103 -6.7% -15.6% 76% 7% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 7% -18.6%
10% -23.6% 5% -26.4%
15% -31.0% 4% -33.5%
20% -37.8% 3% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$601) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$219 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,654
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses78 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage52d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $1,000 +$8 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 +$3 +50%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $647 +$27 +4%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $204 +$8 +4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $971 +$60 +6%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $0 $0 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $371 +$16 +4%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1,000 +$41 +4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $1,000 +$40 +4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $300 +$14 +5%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $141 +$6 +4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $485 +$20 +4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4 $0 +4%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $257 +$10 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $62 +$3 +4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $946 +$95 +10%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $837 +$99 +12%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $358 −$29 -8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $900 +$37 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $900 +$37 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $67 +$2 +3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $91 +$4 +4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $799 +$33 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $128 +$4 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $584 +$29 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $800 +$25 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $739 −$22 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $212 +$9 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $800 +$32 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $36 +$1 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $700 +$28 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $480 +$19 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $24 +$1 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $52 −$51 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $700 +$45 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $687 +$42 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $112 +$5 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $601 +$24 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $500 +$15 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $171 +$5 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $198 +$8 +4%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $490 +$30 +6%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $176 +$7 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,008 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,000 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $674 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 94¢ $51 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 96¢ $51 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 96¢ $545 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $213 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 96¢ $204 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,031 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $971 5h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 6h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 96¢ $96 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 6h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $387 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $48 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $26 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $44 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $31 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $2 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $148 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $71 22h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $7 28h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $11 28h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $4 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,041 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 96¢ $1,000 30h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,041 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 304 history records