Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
37 0x378c…14b8 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$361 (+44%) realized +$477 · open −$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +45.4% +31.6% 67% 56% +36.3%
≤30d 9 +45.4% +31.6% 67% 56% +36.3%
≤90d 9 +45.4% +31.6% 67% 56% +36.3%
all 9 +45.4% +31.6% 67% 56% +36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.6% 56% +36.3%
10% +19.0% 56% +23.2%
15% +7.5% 56% +11.3%
20% -3.1% 44% +0.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$27 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$477
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 8¢ $100 $11 −$89 (-89%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 20¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $157 +$220 +140%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $76 −$4 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 +$8 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Poznan (Doubles): Karol/Serdarusic vs Shevchenko/Yevseyev Jun 15 $188 −$6 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $116 +$132 +114%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$66 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $28 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 48¢ $10 26h
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi BUY Elena Jamshidi 84¢ $71 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $2 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $37 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $30 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $37 2d
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri SELL Ipek Oz 50¢ $72 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $52 2d
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Ipek Oz 51¢ $15 2d
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Ipek Oz 51¢ $61 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $18 3d
Poznan (Doubles): Karol/Serdarusic vs Shevchenko/Yevseyev BUY Karol/Serdarusic 51¢ $46 3d
Poznan (Doubles): Karol/Serdarusic vs Shevchenko/Yevseyev BUY Karol/Serdarusic 51¢ $142 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $24 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $46 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $46 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.43 · official $11.43 (match) · 27 history records