Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3790…5e8b sports 314 markets active 0h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,617 (-0%) realized −$1,605 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate71%219W / 91L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,368per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$653est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$282
14 days−$733
30 days+$4,792
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$3,924
tech 7% −$2,947
other 6% +$3,478
crypto 2% −$77
politics 2% −$71
economics 1% +$242
culture 1% +$39
world 1% +$1,125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -26.8% -33.8% 23% 23% -2.0%
≤30d 33 +7.3% -2.9% 30% 30% +27.6%
≤90d 123 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 62% -10.0%
all 310 +2.8% -7.0% 71% 56% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 56% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 32% -18.6%
15% -24.0% 10% -26.5%
20% -31.5% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$2,038) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$341 vs −$845 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$1,173
Realized−$1,605
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses219 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$653
Open positions4
Markets (closed)310 / 314
History coverage245d
Avg bet$1,368
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $930 $925 −$4 (-0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $112 $140 +$28 (+25%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $142 $107 −$36 (-25%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $305 −$305 -100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $328 −$328 -100%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 26 $307 −$307 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 25 $148 −$148 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 25 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $130 −$35 -27%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $410 −$264 -64%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $700 +$1,276 +182%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 23 $201 −$201 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $256 −$16 -6%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $70 +$19 +27%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $338 +$810 +240%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $305 −$305 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $492 −$492 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $510 −$19 -4%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $525 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $493 +$2,036 +413%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $493 −$205 -42%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,034 −$530 -51%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 +$126 +62%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $767 −$767 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $400 −$19 -5%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $364 −$364 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $128 +$129 +101%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1,470 +$3,780 +257%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $251 +$1,519 +606%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $203 +$52 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $159 +$44 +27%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 May 21 $815 −$815 -100%
Kasımpaşa SK vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 1.5 May 21 $813 −$813 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5 May 17 $783 −$14 -2%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $810 +$149 +18%
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5 May 17 $800 +$119 +15%
FC Utrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 1.5 May 17 $910 +$132 +14%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $928 +$170 +18%
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5 May 17 $757 +$183 +24%
1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $799 −$799 -100%
Hibernian FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $790 −$790 -100%
PEC Zwolle vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 1.5 May 17 $939 −$939 -100%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5 May 17 $770 −$770 -100%
Falkirk FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $874 −$874 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: O/U 1.5 May 17 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
New England Revolution vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $885 −$885 -100%
Antalyaspor vs. Alanyaspor: O/U 1.5 May 17 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 17 $3,272 −$3,272 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 47m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $100 47m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 47m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 49m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 50m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 50m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $191 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $112 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $40 3h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 11¢ $305 2d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 12¢ $307 3d
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 16¢ $328 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $148 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $148 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 66¢ $95 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 6¢ $146 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $410 6d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 70¢ $159 6d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 70¢ $11 6d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 70¢ $8 6d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 70¢ $38 6d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,172.72 · official $1,083.89 · 2557 history records