Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
37 0x3791…01e1 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$882 (+4%) realized +$890 · open +$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day66.9pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$735
sports 43% +$747
crypto 14% −$493
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -9.1% -17.8% 66% 56% -4.9%
≤30d 32 -9.1% -17.8% 66% 56% -4.9%
≤90d 32 -9.1% -17.8% 66% 56% -4.9%
all 32 -9.1% -17.8% 66% 56% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 56% -4.9%
10% -25.6% 34% -14.0%
15% ← realistic here -32.8% 12% -22.3%
20% -39.4% 3% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$98 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,306
Realized+$890
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions7
Markets (closed)32 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$517
Trades / day66.9
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 78¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 69¢ 94¢ $250 $338 +$88 (+35%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $207 $215 +$8 (+4%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 80¢ 98¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 78¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 68¢ 62¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $238 $0 −$238 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $201 +$46 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $152 +$29 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $42 −$8 -18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $151 +$59 +39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $201 +$43 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,990 +$295 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $2,362 +$174 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$12 -81%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 +$166 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 +$54 +27%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $708 +$341 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $257 −$250 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$60 -59%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$67 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $81 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $154 −$44 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $244 −$238 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $111 +$24 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $157 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $203 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $81 −$29 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $666 +$90 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$65 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$13 +13%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $3,491 +$250 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $1,224 +$160 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 68¢ $50 10m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 37m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $130 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $503 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $101 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $101 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $201 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $101 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $135 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 52¢ $34 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 63¢ $32 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $210 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $244 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 81¢ $201 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,422 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,534 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $2,536 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 92¢ $862 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,306.46 · official $2,318.96 (match) · 125 history records