Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3794…bfd1 politics 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$15
politics 30% −$11
sports 11% +$18
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 136 +0.3% -9.2% 9% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage130d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $177 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $157 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $152 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $213 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $429 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $147 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $152 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $175 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $170 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $155 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $161 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $401 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $177 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $199 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $390 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $163 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $161 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $163 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $163 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $184 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $222 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $168 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $342 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $366 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $188 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $163 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $186 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $171 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $156 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 16h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $26 16h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $26 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 15d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 15d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 19d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $21 19d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $177 21d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $177 27d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $168 28d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $168 29d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $157 29d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $157 31d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $152 43d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $152 45d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $214 45d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $214 45d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $213 46d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $213 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 48d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $215 48d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $215 48d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $198 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.99 · official $17.99 (match) · 400 history records