Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x379a…5122 sports 160 markets active 11h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33,261 (-10%) realized −$33,228 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%67W / 92L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,990per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$2,807est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,500
7 days−$6,552
14 days−$11,209
30 days−$36,400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$37,655
other 41% +$6,051
world 3% −$5,054
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 41% -15.5%
≤30d 89 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 39% -26.4%
≤90d 159 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 42% -20.1%
all 159 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 42% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 42% -20.1%
10% -30.2% 42% -27.7%
15% -36.9% 42% -34.7%
20% -43.1% 42% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,434) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,029 vs −$1,876 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$33,228
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses67 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$2,807
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage65d
Avg bet$1,990
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4,999 −$4,927 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6,103 −$6,000 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6,081 +$4,828 +79%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $4,616 −$4,540 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $1,647 +$1,362 +83%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,241 −$1,223 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5,078 +$5,339 +105%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,136 −$3,068 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,064 +$4,447 +109%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5,073 −$5,000 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5,882 −$5,800 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,310 +$1,271 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6,094 +$6,406 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7,385 −$7,278 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5,066 +$3,863 +76%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 15 $1,317 −$1,297 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,827 +$1,704 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,014 −$2,000 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5,085 +$6,542 +129%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,827 +$1,704 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $140 −$138 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6,094 +$63 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2,184 +$1,806 +83%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4,058 −$4,000 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,401 −$1,380 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3,558 +$4,185 +118%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1,443 −$1,419 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $6,085 −$6,000 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $177 −$174 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $223 +$264 +119%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $468 −$460 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1,535 +$1,431 +93%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,071 +$1,782 +86%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,621 −$1,600 -99%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $203 −$200 -99%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $1,119 −$1,100 -98%
O'Higgins FC vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1,154 +$1,166 +101%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1,781 +$1,358 +76%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3,478 −$3,431 -99%
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) May 31 $2,434 +$2,048 +84%
CD Limache vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 2.5 May 31 $1,613 −$1,587 -98%
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,840 +$1,457 +79%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 May 31 $1,152 −$1,135 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $193 −$190 -98%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $733 −$720 -98%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2,032 +$2,224 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4,999 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $6,103 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6,081 16h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $4,616 37h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $1 41h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $24 41h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $1,622 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $1 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $313 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $364 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $563 46h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $5,078 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $3,136 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $4,064 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $5,073 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $5,070 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $812 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $600 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $709 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $6,094 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $7,385 4d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,317 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5,066 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $2,014 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,827 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $2,032 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 43¢ $5,085 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,827 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $140 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.51 · official $66.51 (match) · 317 history records