Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
37 0x379c…84fa sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+13%) realized +$43 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+66.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +83.8% +66.3% 100% 100% +66.3%
≤30d 1 +83.8% +66.3% 100% 100% +66.3%
≤90d 1 +83.8% +66.3% 100% 100% +66.3%
all 1 +83.8% +66.3% 100% 100% +66.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +66.3% 100% +66.3%
10% +50.4% 100% +50.4%
15% +35.9% 100% +35.9%
20% +22.5% 100% +22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +84% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 26¢ $123 $120 −$2 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $46 +$38 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.35 · official $238.35 (match) · 15 history records