Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
37 0x37a0…395e politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% −$5
world 9% $0
sports 3% $0
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.6% -13.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -4.6% -13.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -4.6% -13.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 15 -6.1% -15.1% 7% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -23.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage246d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $169 $169 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $169 $169 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $2 $0 -17%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -17%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $179 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $218 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 07 $15 −$6 -39%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 21 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 21 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 15h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 16h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 17h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 18h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 19h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 20h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 21h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 25h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 26h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 35h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 37h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 39h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 43h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 43h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 46h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.39 · official $352.39 (match) · 42 history records