Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
37 0x37a1…6691 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$126 · open +$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$4,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1,658
other 50% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +37.2% +24.1% 36% 36% +16.8%
≤30d 11 +37.2% +24.1% 36% 36% +16.8%
≤90d 11 +37.2% +24.1% 36% 36% +16.8%
all 11 +37.2% +24.1% 36% 36% +16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.1% 36% +16.8%
10% ← realistic here +12.3% 36% +5.7%
15% +1.4% 27% -4.6%
20% -8.5% 18% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$512 vs −$91 · ×5.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4,289
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$104
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions12
Markets (closed)11 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$394
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? No 88¢ 89¢ $3,720 $3,762 +$42 (+1%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $175 $195 +$19 (+11%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 50¢ $107 $103 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 72¢ $60 $81 +$21 (+35%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $22 $45 +$22 (+100%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Argentina? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $29 $36 +$7 (+25%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? No 81¢ 80¢ $33 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 71¢ 69¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Argentina? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Argentina? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $952 +$260 +27%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 +$15 +982%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $3,227 +$1,761 +55%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $366 −$358 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $99 −$96 -97%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 27 $43 −$42 -97%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $21 −$21 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $28 +$13 +46%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 England? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $95 −$92 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $180 10m
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 10m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $1,317 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $1,910 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 88¢ $1,126 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 88¢ $2,607 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $64 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $0 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $8 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $30 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $95 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $65 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $96 2h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 9¢ $2 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 78¢ $952 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 2h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 10h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 10h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 2¢ $48 10h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY No 81¢ $33 10h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 England? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,288.96 · official $4,297.82 (match) · 48 history records