Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x37a3…2680 weather 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate69%37W / 17L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% +$29
tech 36% −$4
other 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 +0.0% -9.5% 66% 0% -9.5%
all 54 +0.4% -9.1% 69% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$529) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.07 per $1 lost it wins $4.07
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses37 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage112d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $387 $387 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $298 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $714 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 29 $272 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $326 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 27? Apr 27 $160 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $248 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $244 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 21? Apr 21 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 20? Apr 21 $312 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 16? Apr 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 11? Apr 13 $152 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 7? Apr 09 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 6? Apr 09 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on April 8? Apr 09 $216 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 3? Apr 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 4? Apr 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 5? Apr 06 $185 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 3 Apr 02 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 29? Mar 30 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 28? Mar 29 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 26? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on March 25? Mar 26 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or higher on March 2 Mar 26 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 23? Mar 24 $276 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on March 22? Mar 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 21 $261 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 18? Mar 19 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 17 Mar 18 $302 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 17 $848 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on Mar Mar 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 14 $545 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 11? Mar 11 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 10? Mar 10 $541 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8? Mar 09 $540 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 08 $121 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 08 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 6? Mar 07 $531 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 5? Mar 06 $530 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 3? Mar 04 $530 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 3? Mar 04 $529 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 02 $529 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 1? Mar 02 $526 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 1? Mar 02 $1 +$1 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $387 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $210 2d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 3d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $298 5d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $298 7d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $351 11d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $351 12d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $362 15d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $362 16d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $326 18d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $326 19d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $382 20d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $382 21d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $272 22d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $272 23d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $231 25d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $231 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $372 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $372 28d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $284 29d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $284 30d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $210 34d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $211 48d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $326 52d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $160 54d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $248 55d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $248 56d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $244 58d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $244 59d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $240 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.11 · official $387.11 (match) · 124 history records