Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37a3…1a7d
sports · 25 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$50 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$53 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$10
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day58.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 2 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 65¢ 42¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 65¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 64¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Team WE $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $25 +$6 +24%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $78 +$6 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$3 -10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$9 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $35 +$8 +22%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 +$8 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $59 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $18 $0 -1%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $46 +$10 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$10 +188%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $31 −$5 -17%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% +$38
other 14% +$6
world 6% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $15 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 97¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 65¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 93¢ $50 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $84 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $23 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $24 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $12 4h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $50 4h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $10 4h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports $1 4h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 36¢ $5 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $10 5h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $5 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $29 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 69¢ $20 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $32 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 92¢ $15 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 93¢ $15 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 61¢ $12 11h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $15 13h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $10 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $52 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 98¢ $29 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 89¢ $10 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 87¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +10.2% -0.3% 70% 48% -0.1%
≤30d 23 +10.2% -0.3% 70% 48% -0.1%
≤90d 23 +10.2% -0.3% 70% 48% -0.1%
all 23 +10.2% -0.3% 70% 48% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 48% -0.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 35% -9.6%
15% -18.5% 22% -18.4%
20% -26.5% 17% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.26 · official $10.26 (match) · 81 history records