Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37a4…2ad8 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+3%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$28
other 16% +$2
politics 7% $0
finance 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 19 +2.3% -7.4% 42% 5% -6.3%
≤90d 19 +2.3% -7.4% 42% 5% -6.3%
all 43 -0.1% -9.6% 51% 7% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 7% -6.7%
10% -18.3% 2% -15.6%
15% -26.1% 2% -23.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×10.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.44 per $1 lost it wins $18.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage492d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $93 +$4 +4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $68 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $81 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $56 +$23 +40%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $59 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23? May 19 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $1 $0 -24%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $11 $0 -0%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 15 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Mar 12 $1 $0 -7%
Anderlecht vs. Fenerbahce Mar 03 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $52 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $15 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $37 6h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $47 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $50 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $3 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $50 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $21 44h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $24 44h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $27 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $16 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $21 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $14 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $15 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $39 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.91 · official $0.00 · 149 history records