Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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37 0x37a4…c92c crypto 1750 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$230 (-10%) realized −$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%1665W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$38
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 +1.1% -8.5% 96% 5% -8.5%
≤30d 1080 +0.0% -9.5% 95% 6% -10.2%
≤90d 1750 -0.3% -9.8% 95% 5% -11.0%
all 1750 -0.3% -9.8% 95% 5% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 5% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 2% -19.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1665 / 85
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1750 / 1750
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1750 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 97¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 35m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.74 · official $25.74 (match) · 3500 history records