Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37aa…7fa0 crypto 435 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate77%335W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$5
politics 17% −$1
other 14% −$4
sports 13% −$19
world 6% −$3
economics 1% −$1
finance 1% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -38.2% -44.1% 14% 14% -47.0%
≤30d 45 -17.7% -25.5% 64% 22% -19.1%
≤90d 197 -4.2% -13.3% 90% 6% -11.5%
all 433 -1.9% -11.3% 77% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -10.0%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses335 / 98
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)433 / 435
History coverage143d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 54¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $7 −$3 -36%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $9 +$5 +59%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $6 +$5 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $5 +$4 +83%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 06 $19 +$15 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $9 +$1 +13%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $5 +$1 +21%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $9 −$7 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5PM ET May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5PM ET May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3PM ET May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 5.5 May 19 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9PM ET May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3PM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 16¢ $5 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 25¢ $7 14h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 38h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $5 42h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 31¢ $6 42h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $8 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $5 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 5d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 62¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 84¢ $5 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 7d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 62¢ $9 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 55¢ $6 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ $8 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 79¢ $5 9d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $8 9d
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 77¢ $10 10d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 10d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 91¢ $6 12d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 88¢ $9 12d
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $5 12d
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $5 12d
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $5 12d
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $5 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $7 13d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 82¢ $5 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $8 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.77 · official $13.77 (match) · 1957 history records