Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:16:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

37 0x37aa…d968 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$23 (+11%) realized +$24 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate52%12W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$15

7 days+$30

14 days+$20

30 days+$20

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-14.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+50.4%	+36.1%	75%	75%	+37.9%
≤30d	23	-5.0%	-14.0%	52%	52%	+0.8%
≤90d	23	-5.0%	-14.0%	52%	52%	+0.8%
all	23	-5.0%	-14.0%	52%	52%	+0.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.0%	52%	+0.8%
10%	-22.3%	48%	-8.8%
15%	-29.8%	35%	-17.6%
20%	-36.7%	30%	-25.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late -0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.36 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$27

Realized+$24

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses12 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage14d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	68¢	66¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-2%)
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals	Yes	18¢	16¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Cyle Larin: 2+ shots	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-99%
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals	Jun 19	$5	+$7	+146%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	+$17	+86%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$22	+$15	+69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 10	$3	−$3	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 10	$2	+$1	+34%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 10	$5	−$5	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 09	$8	$0	-5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08?	Jun 09	$6	+$1	+18%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 08	$31	−$15	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 08	$4	+$2	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 08	$4	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 08	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 08	$10	−$10	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 08	$10	+$8	+80%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 07	$6	+$5	+75%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 06	$3	−$3	-100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 06	$9	+$5	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 06	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 06	$8	+$2	+26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 06	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 06	$7	+$10	+132%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 06	$3	+$1	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	18¢	$3	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$25	1h
Cyle Larin: 2+ shots	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	42h
Cyle Larin: 2+ shots	BUY Yes	85¢	$10	45h
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	40¢	$5	45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$20	47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$12	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$3	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$3	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$2	10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Golden Knights	49¢	$5	10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	49¢	$8	10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	50¢	$8	11d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	54¢	$15	11d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	46¢	$16	11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08?	BUY Yes	84¢	$6	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$6	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$4	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$4	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$4	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$5	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	18¢	$5	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$5	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$5	12d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07?	SELL Yes	94¢	$11	13d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07?	BUY Yes	53¢	$6	13d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	46¢	$16	13d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$3	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.20 · official $27.12 (match) · 53 history records