Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37aa…01f4 other 217 markets active 0h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,071 (-15%) realized −$1,072 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%61W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$42
14 days+$185
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$898
world 29% −$126
sports 13% +$2
politics 6% −$5
tech 4% −$8
culture 2% −$8
economics 2% −$57
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -12.0% -20.4% 41% 29% +3.1%
≤30d 28 -14.2% -22.4% 43% 32% +19.6%
≤90d 42 -17.3% -25.2% 43% 33% -17.6%
all 206 -35.2% -41.3% 30% 20% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 20% -24.0%
10% -46.9% 17% -31.3%
15% -52.1% 11% -37.9%
20% -56.8% 10% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$1,072
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses61 / 145
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)206 / 217
History coverage170d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+35%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 89¢ 95¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 59¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+69%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 42¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 19 $2 −$1 -60%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $28 −$14 -51%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -18%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$15 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $100 +$1 +2%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $41 +$26 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$38 +103%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5 −$1 -15%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$16 +161%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $24 +$14 +58%
Spread: Hurricanes (-3.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $13 $0 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals be by 6 or Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $19 −$19 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $191 +$144 +76%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 15 $5 $0 +4%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $35 +$8 +22%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $63 +$22 +35%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $32 +$6 +20%
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the AC Mar 29 $21 −$8 -35%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $261 −$163 -62%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $12 +$17 +144%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Bi Mar 28 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $17 −$8 -45%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Mar 19 $14 +$38 +269%
Will High Point win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Texas Tech win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Penn win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UMBC win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Idaho win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Akron win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Hawaii win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? A SELL 1¢ $1 4m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 95¢ $19 9m
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 11m
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 60¢ $9 32m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 46¢ $6 46m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 46¢ $5 46m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 46¢ $1 47m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $3 48m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $1 48m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $15 59m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $12 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 2¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 89¢ $36 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Netherlands vs. Sweden BUY 8¢ $3 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 99¢ $100 46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL 0¢ $0 46h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $11 46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY 2¢ $2 46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY 2¢ $2 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18 BUY 2¢ $2 46h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 46h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.64 · official $61.71 · 2140 history records