Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37ac…54fc politics 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate27%26W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$1
14 days+$40
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$9
other 19% +$2
sports 19% −$18
weather 14% +$21
world 13% −$16
tech 6% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -14.9% -23.0% 55% 45% -8.3%
≤30d 91 -25.0% -32.1% 26% 18% -10.7%
≤90d 97 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 16% -12.4%
all 97 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 16% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 16% -12.4%
10% -40.7% 13% -20.8%
15% -46.4% 12% -28.4%
20% -51.7% 10% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses26 / 71
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions29
Markets (closed)97 / 126
History coverage47d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Discord IPO before 2027? No 39¢ 40¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 13¢ 60¢ $2 $8 +$7 (+367%)
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? No 44¢ 46¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No 43¢ 45¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026? No 45¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title Yes 63¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 44¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 61¢ 55¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Democratic Party win the ND-AL House seat? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 57¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+238%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+106%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 70¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 NL Central title? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? No 72¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 53¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 19¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $14 +$8 +56%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $6 +$4 +76%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $38 +$1 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $3 +$3 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$2 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Wes Unseld Jr. be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -93%
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -14%
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 08 $2 −$1 -90%
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim Jun 08 $1 $0 -40%
New pandemic in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Republican Party win the CO-05 House seat? Jun 08 $3 $0 -7%
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat? Jun 08 $2 $0 -18%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $24 −$3 -12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1 $0 +11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -60%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $4 $0 -10%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$1 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -34%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 08 $29 −$2 -8%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $14 −$2 -14%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 08 $21 −$2 -8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 08 $8 $0 -6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 08 $8 −$1 -17%
Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat? Jun 08 $12 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat? Jun 08 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-20 House seat? Jun 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $12 −$1 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 08 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $12 $0 -3%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Jun 08 $12 $0 -4%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Jun 08 $8 $0 +4%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +37%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +13%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $6 +$2 +42%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 +$4 +96%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 08 $24 +$2 +6%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 1m
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 21m
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026? SELL No 42¢ $0 36m
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 44¢ $0 36m
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title SELL Yes 67¢ $0 40m
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026? SELL No 41¢ $0 41m
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 44¢ $0 41m
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026? SELL No 41¢ $0 45m
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 44¢ $0 46m
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026? SELL No 41¢ $0 50m
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 44¢ $0 51m
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026? SELL No 44¢ $0 55m
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 44¢ $0 56m
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 1h
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026? SELL No 43¢ $0 1h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 44¢ $0 1h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 1h
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026? SELL No 42¢ $0 1h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 44¢ $0 1h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 1h
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026? SELL No 41¢ $0 1h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 44¢ $0 1h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 1h
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026? SELL No 44¢ $0 1h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 1h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 44¢ $0 1h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 1h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 1h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.01 · official $99.76 (match) · 894 history records