Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37ad…0377 crypto 427 markets active 21h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (422 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,336 (-15%) realized −$6,336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%168W / 355L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day421.9pace
Fees−$310est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,656
7 days−$8,768
14 days−$8,538
30 days−$8,538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$4,902
sports 39% −$8,126
other 4% +$6,834
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (422 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 410 -34.1% -40.3% 29% 29% -28.9%
≤30d 523 -29.4% -36.2% 32% 32% -27.4%
≤90d 523 -29.4% -36.2% 32% 32% -27.4%
all 523 -29.4% -36.2% 32% 32% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover421.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.2% 32% -27.4%
10% ← realistic here -42.3% 32% -34.3%
15% -47.8% 32% -40.7%
20% -53.0% 32% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$82 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses168 / 355
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$310
Open positions0
Markets (closed)523 / 427
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day421.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 523 Trades
no open positions (345 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $422 −$422 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,144 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 67¢ $625 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 67¢ $842 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 67¢ $1,169 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 67¢ $378 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1,836 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $53 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1,068 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $53 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $615 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $12 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $589 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $703 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1,899 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $56 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $106 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $886 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $7,508 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 44¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 44¢ $0 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 44¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 44¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $617 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $1,500 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $25 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $364 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $85 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records