Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x37b5…b6c8 sports 337 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$204 (+2%) realized +$202 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%127W / 182L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$12
14 days+$342
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$422
other 33% +$77
world 6% +$88
finance 3% +$3
politics 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -18.7% -26.4% 32% 32% -10.4%
≤30d 106 +16.2% +5.1% 35% 35% -6.5%
≤90d 211 +12.7% +2.0% 37% 36% -4.0%
all 309 +10.2% -0.3% 41% 40% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 40% -4.0%
10% -9.8% 40% -13.2%
15% -18.5% 37% -21.6%
20% -26.5% 32% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$23 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$376
Realized+$202
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses127 / 182
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions13
Markets (closed)309 / 337
History coverage172d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $64 $75 +$11 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $34 $55 +$22 (+65%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $52 $45 −$7 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $45 +$14 (+46%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $44 $38 −$6 (-14%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+12%)
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists Yes 29¢ 49¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+70%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $23 −$2 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 24¢ $26 $12 −$14 (-54%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $7 −$9 (-55%)
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Yes 19¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $25 +$26 +103%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$96 +630%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $83 +$87 +105%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $13 +$8 +58%
Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 −$19 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $26 +$25 +93%
Federico Valverde: 2+ goals Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $16 +$25 +152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $45 −$44 -98%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$6 -32%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 +$26 +101%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $65 +$84 +129%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $24 −$23 -98%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $24 +$37 +154%
Enner Valencia: 2+ goals Jun 20 $24 −$23 -98%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 20 $53 −$52 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $15 −$4 -27%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $28 +$24 +86%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $57 +$72 +126%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $59 +$21 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $96 +$40 +41%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $18 +$40 +220%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Jonathan David: 3+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$105 +1025%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$52 +506%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 18 $38 +$44 +118%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 +$24 +68%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $22 −$9 -40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AN Jun 18 $24 +$111 +471%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $45 1h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $15 2h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $26 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $36 3h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY 18¢ $37 24h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 24h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $52 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 25h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $25 25h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $14 2d
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $14 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $21 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will United States win on 2 BUY $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a BUY $4 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 2d
Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $26 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY 13¢ $15 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 3d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $24 3d
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $15 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 18¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $376.07 · official $376.07 (match) · 912 history records