Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37b8…2055 other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$10
politics 25% −$2
sports 7% −$5
economics 6% −$1
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -9.1% -17.8% 18% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 100 -3.6% -12.8% 12% 9% -9.7%
all 106 -3.4% -12.6% 11% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 8% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 8% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 7% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage93d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $212 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $111 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $182 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $186 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $99 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $185 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $92 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $95 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $188 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $93 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $171 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $232 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $10 7h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $10 11h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $44 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 5d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $13 12d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 22d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 23d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 24d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 26d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 29d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $9 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 30d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 30d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 30d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 30d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $96 34d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $96 34d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $90 35d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $90 35d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $94 35d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $94 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.37 · official $56.37 (match) · 284 history records