Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37bc…67c3 crypto 412 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$401 (+4%) realized −$115 · open +$516
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate92%375W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,843now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$41
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$123
other 14% +$453
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -13.6% -21.8% 25% 25% -42.9%
≤30d 8 -43.1% -48.5% 12% 12% -50.0%
≤90d 16 -29.4% -36.2% 38% 19% -45.5%
all 407 -2.0% -11.3% 92% 11% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 11% -11.3%
10% -19.8% 1% -19.8%
15% -27.5% 1% -27.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$1,843
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$516
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses375 / 32
Open positions5
Markets (closed)407 / 412
History coverage96d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $876 $1,366 +$490 (+56%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $376 $408 +$33 (+9%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $62 $66 +$4 (+6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9 +$4 +46%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3 $0 -6%
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $48 −$42 -89%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -69%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 26 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 25 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 25 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 25 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$1 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 24 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 24 $18 +$3 +16%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 23 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 23 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 23 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $62 1h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $49 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 9h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 9h
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 7d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $48 19d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 19d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 19d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $387 24d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $407 24d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 26d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $493 26d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 26d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 26d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 26d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,842.67 · official $1,842.67 (match) · 1002 history records