Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:40:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37be…2bcc
other · 16 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$29 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)7 / 16
History coverage91d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 9 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $9 $18 +$9 (+100%)
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? No 50¢ 92¢ $6 $10 +$5 (+83%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? No 83¢ 83¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? No 30¢ 17¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 33¢ 7¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-80%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 51¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? No 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? May 27 $7 −$1 -15%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? May 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Apr 24 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Apr 24 $6 $0 +1%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Apr 24 $7 $0 -3%
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? Apr 01 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Mar 16 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% +$10
world 20% −$4
politics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $7 1h
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 5d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 10d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 16d
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 20d
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $7 21d
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 21d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 23d
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $21 23d
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $7 46d
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 46d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $4 49d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 49d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $5 49d
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $6 49d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $7 49d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $6 49d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 49d
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $6 51d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $4 51d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 51d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $7 51d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $6 51d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 51d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 51d
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 55d
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $8 57d
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 57d
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $15 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -8.1% -16.9% 0% 0% -16.5%
≤90d 7 +19.1% +7.8% 29% 14% -10.5%
all 7 +19.1% +7.8% 29% 14% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 14% -10.5%
10% -2.5% 14% -19.0%
15% -12.0% 14% -26.9%
20% -20.6% 14% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.83 · official $52.84 (match) · 54 history records