Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37be…d876 crypto 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$1,237 (-7%) realized −$1,469 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%143W / 165L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$211
14 days−$211
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$352
crypto 29% −$589
politics 20% −$392
other 3% −$231
sports 2% +$95
tech 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 40% -14.4%
≤30d 16 -12.1% -20.4% 44% 38% -14.4%
≤90d 23 -3.4% -12.6% 57% 43% -16.2%
all 308 -21.5% -28.9% 46% 28% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 28% -17.3%
10% -35.7% 17% -25.2%
15% -41.9% 13% -32.4%
20% -47.6% 10% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -31% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,469
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses143 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)308 / 310
History coverage161d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $258 $0 −$258 (-100%)
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address? No 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$29 +281%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$35 +114%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $141 +$8 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $90 +$51 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $203 +$42 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 −$91 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +107%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $92 +$23 +25%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $3,032 −$91 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 17 $98 +$5 +5%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $108 −$107 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 08 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 08 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 07 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 07 $2 +$3 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 08 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 08 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 08 $98 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 08 $17 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 03 $29 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 03 $36 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 03 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 03 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 03 $55 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 03 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 03 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 03 $25 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 03 $25 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 03 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 03 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 03 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 02 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 02 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 02 $37 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 02 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 02 $66 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 02 $68 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 02 $72 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 02 $60 +$11 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 41m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $39 43m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $65 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $141 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $90 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $84 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $85 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $71 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $48 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $111 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $91 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $66 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $44 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 3¢ $112 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $131 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 4¢ $126 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 806 history records