Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
37 0x37c1…8de1 sports 1593 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,462 (+12%) realized +$9,090 · open +$372
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%697W / 884L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day69.2pace
Fees−$1,246est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,609now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$3,106
other 4% +$261
crypto 0% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 +16.7% +5.6% 48% 48% -1.4%
≤30d 1581 +5.9% -4.2% 44% 44% -6.2%
≤90d 1581 +5.9% -4.2% 44% 44% -6.2%
all 1581 +5.9% -4.2% 44% 44% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 44% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 43% -15.2%
15% -21.7% 43% -23.4%
20% -29.4% 39% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$43 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1,609
Realized+$9,090
Unrealized+$372
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses697 / 884
Est. fees paid−$1,246
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1581 / 1593
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day69.2
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1581 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 54¢ 100¢ $325 $602 +$277 (+85%)
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Conner Huertas Del Pino 52¢ 68¢ $181 $236 +$55 (+30%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ 69¢ $175 $210 +$35 (+20%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 57¢ 100¢ $111 $194 +$83 (+75%)
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Hernan Casanova 42¢ 46¢ $125 $137 +$12 (+10%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Under 49¢ 100¢ $47 $96 +$49 (+103%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ 18¢ $190 $60 −$130 (-68%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 34¢ 31¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-9%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) San Diego Padres 50¢ 82¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+64%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Under 38¢ 64¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+68%)
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Ozan Baris 50¢ 46¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 48¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner illwill 34¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $4 +$4 +124%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$33 +596%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 17 $177 −$175 -99%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 17 $172 −$170 -99%
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning Jun 17 $132 +$163 +124%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 17 $172 −$170 -99%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 17 $177 −$175 -99%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 −$45 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $167 +$133 +79%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $147 −$145 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Anastasia Abbagnato vs Ruien Zhang Jun 17 $33 +$74 +226%
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $259 +$41 +16%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $83 +$63 +76%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $112 +$187 +166%
ITF Mohammedia: Oceane Babel vs Martina Colmegna Jun 17 $132 −$130 -98%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $165 +$196 +119%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $147 +$143 +97%
O'Connell vs. Clarke: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $4 +$5 +129%
ITF Kayseri: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Haydar Cem Gokpinar Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $35 −$34 -97%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $162 +$134 +83%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $50 −$40 -80%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $207 −$203 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Ystad: June Bjork vs Isabel Skoog Jun 17 $16 +$14 +86%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Klosters: Kailey Evans vs Laura Mair Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $3 +$7 +197%
ITF Gyula: Peter Fajta vs Ben Stecker Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Kiara Nina Kucikova vs Paula Ormaechea Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Mariya Dobreva vs Daria Shubina Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
ITF Bucharest: Thea Marcu vs Rose Marie Nijkamp Jun 17 $2 +$3 +114%
ITF Kayseri: Kerem Yilmaz vs Theo Herrmann Jun 17 $20 −$19 -98%
ITF Lourinha: Goncalo Marques vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$2 +46%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriya Strakhova vs Elena Korokozidi Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul Jun 17 $224 −$221 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $116 +$85 +73%
ITF Sapporo: Tori Kinard vs Yuzuha Negishi Jun 17 $80 −$53 -67%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 42¢ $127 7m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 50¢ $13 8m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $177 15m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $5 35m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 38¢ $7 38m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 52¢ $157 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $30 45m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 53¢ $26 47m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $112 1h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 50¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 52¢ $5 1h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $172 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 48¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 34¢ $3 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $162 2h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 56¢ $20 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $167 2h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5) BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $3 2h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 58¢ $177 3h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 56¢ $172 3h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 56¢ $172 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 44¢ $4 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 55¢ $3 3h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 58¢ $177 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $5 3h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 58¢ $34 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $48 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $4 3h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $147 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,609.13 · official $1,612.16 (match) · 3500 history records