Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37cb…6ba8 other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+13%) realized +$39 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$51
14 days+$34
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$49
world 34% −$26
politics 15% +$19
sports 9% $0
tech 5% −$4
crypto 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +49.3% +35.1% 56% 39% +45.7%
≤30d 35 +12.5% +1.8% 51% 34% +6.7%
≤90d 35 +12.5% +1.8% 51% 34% +6.7%
all 35 +12.5% +1.8% 51% 34% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 34% +6.7%
10% -8.0% 29% -3.5%
15% -16.9% 17% -12.8%
20% -25.0% 14% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions49
Markets (closed)35 / 84
History coverage20d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 6¢ 40¢ $4 $23 +$20 (+542%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? No 63¢ 82¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 22¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-16%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 44¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? No 63¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 80¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 75¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 68¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 67¢ 71¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 54¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$49 +848%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -46%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $6 +$13 +202%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$2 -16%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -16%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +32%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $9 +$2 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $20 −$8 -42%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $6 +$3 +49%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $6 −$4 -64%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $7 +$2 +35%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $6 $0 -5%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 11¢ $2 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 9h
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 11h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $3 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $1 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 11¢ $1 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 35¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 68¢ $6 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 45¢ $2 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 70¢ $3 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 59¢ $3 2d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 61¢ $3 2d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $4 2d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $3 2d
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 56¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.74 · official $185.53 (match) · 243 history records