Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37cc…e83a other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,114 (+1%) realized +$1,114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,373per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$37
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$145
politics 44% −$91
sports 4% +$1,314
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
economics 1% −$2
world 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 32 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 99 -1.1% -10.5% 10% 6% -8.8%
all 108 -1.0% -10.4% 9% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 6% -8.9%
10% -19.0% 6% -17.6%
15% -26.8% 6% -25.6%
20% -34.0% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,601) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$5 · ×29.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized+$1,114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage97d
Avg bet$1,373
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $377 $377 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $2,336 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,600 −$4 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $5,296 −$8 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,493 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,812 −$5 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,601 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,381 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,154 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,792 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,756 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,450 −$3 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 07 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $3,315 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $4,453 −$6 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $76 +$60 +79%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $488 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $719 +$1 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $953 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $2,900 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,808 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,383 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $6,565 −$8 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $972 −$1 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $983 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $65 +$107 +165%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $1,599 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,657 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $2,566 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $2,440 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,667 −$4 -0%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 07 $1,212 +$1,367 +113%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $798 1h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $800 4h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $577 22h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $578 25h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $222 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $222 4d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,200 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,202 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,539 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,542 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,374 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,376 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,235 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,237 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,491 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,493 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,344 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,346 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,599 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,601 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $377 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,378 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,381 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,464 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,466 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,536 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,538 14d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,644 14d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,646 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,363 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.32 · official $377.32 (match) · 337 history records