Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37cd…1c11 crypto 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$110 (+7%) realized +$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%37W / 68L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$415
crypto 23% −$77
other 18% −$133
sports 5% −$75
politics 3% −$4
finance 2% −$5
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 46% -29.2%
≤30d 37 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 46% -29.2%
≤90d 79 -17.2% -25.1% 35% 28% -41.8%
all 105 -5.4% -14.4% 35% 26% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 26% -3.1%
10% -22.6% 22% -12.4%
15% -30.1% 18% -20.9%
20% -36.9% 16% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$12 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses37 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage131d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$6 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$26 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$11 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $425 −$143 -34%
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? Apr 26 $2 $0 -18%
Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $1 $0 -17%
Will S&P Global (SPGI) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $1 $0 -9%
Will Teladoc Health (TDOC) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $1 $0 -42%
Will Waystar (WAY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $1 $0 -16%
Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $1 $0 -30%
Will Virtu Financial (VIRT) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $1 $0 -36%
Will Ford Motor (F) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $1 $0 -40%
Will Aflac (AFL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $1 $0 -43%
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $1 $0 -43%
Will Wingstop (WING) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -55%
Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 288 history records