Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37cf…bdb4 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,981 (-17%) realized −$2,981 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$722per market
Trades / day56.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$2,137
other 14% −$1,838
sports 3% −$310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -37.3% -43.3% 36% 36% -24.4%
≤30d 25 -37.3% -43.3% 36% 36% -24.4%
≤90d 25 -37.3% -43.3% 36% 36% -24.4%
all 25 -37.3% -43.3% 36% 36% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.3% 36% -24.4%
10% -48.7% 32% -31.6%
15% ← realistic here -53.7% 28% -38.2%
20% -58.2% 20% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -72% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$545 vs −$575 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,981
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$722
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $5,067 −$5,067 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $2,070 +$1,901 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $2,435 +$778 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $419 +$809 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $1,141 +$814 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $217 +$176 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $333 +$145 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $310 +$64 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $517 −$507 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $570 −$50 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $210 −$200 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,504 −$1,838 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $168 −$162 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $111 −$105 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $278 +$142 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $194 +$80 +41%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $507 −$310 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1,284 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $768 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1,035 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $960 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1,020 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3,972 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $987 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $877 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $813 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1,207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $312 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $211 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $411 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $209 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $413 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $341 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $478 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records